NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA NY
Points 107.2 108.5
Total Points   215.6
Points From 2-Pointers 53.1 52.6
Points From 3-Pointers 37.0 40.3
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.5
Shooting MIA NY
Field Goals Made 38.9 39.7
Field Goals Attempted 83.9 85.9
Field Goal % 46.3% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.6 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 50.0 48.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 13.4
3 Pointers Attempted 33.9 37.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 19.9
Free Throw % 82.0% 78.1%
Ball Control MIA NY
Rebounds 45.8 49.4
Rebounds - Defensive 35.5 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 12.9
Turnovers 11.4 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.0
Steals 6.1 6.1
Fouls 15.7 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA NY
Total Possessions 97.2
Effective Scoring Chances 96.1 98.2
% of Possessions with MIA NY
2 Point Attempt 45.9% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 33.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 16.1%
Turnover 11.8% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA NY
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 26.7%