NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BK
Points 108.1 107.2
Total Points   215.3
Points From 2-Pointers 54.2 51.0
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 41.5
Points From Free Throws 18.1 14.6
Shooting MIA BK
Field Goals Made 39.1 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 86.0
Field Goal % 45.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 27.1 25.5
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 46.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 54.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.5 39.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 18.1 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 19.1
Free Throw % 80.8% 76.5%
Ball Control MIA BK
Rebounds 48.5 48.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.0 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.0
Turnovers 11.1 12.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.7
Steals 6.2 5.6
Fouls 15.5 17.1

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BK
Total Possessions 98.7
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 97.6
% of Possessions with MIA BK
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.2% 35.3%
Player Fouled 17.4% 15.7%
Turnover 11.2% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BK
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 22.4%