NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BK
Points 109.0 105.0
Total Points   214.0
Points From 2-Pointers 53.1 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 38.1 39.7
Points From Free Throws 17.8 14.7
Shooting MIA BK
Field Goals Made 39.3 38.5
Field Goals Attempted 85.9 86.1
Field Goal % 45.7% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.6 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 47.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 13.2
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 38.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 17.8 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 19.4
Free Throw % 81.7% 76.0%
Ball Control MIA BK
Rebounds 49.2 49.1
Rebounds - Defensive 38.7 37.9
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.2
Turnovers 10.9 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.6
Steals 6.4 5.4
Fouls 15.6 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BK
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 97.8
% of Possessions with MIA BK
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 42.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.7% 34.8%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.7%
Turnover 11.0% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BK
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 22.5%