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Miami at Denver
Wed Apr 14, 2021
10:00pm ET
Denver, CO
Miami at Denver: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Denver by 5.5, Total Points: 209.5
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | MIA | adv | DEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 42-40-2 | 38-42-2 | |
| vs Division | 9-6-1 | 6-10-0 | |
| vs Conference | 28-24-2 | 22-29-1 | |
| Streak | W2 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 4-1-0 | |
| Last 10 | 7-3-0 | 5-5-0 | |
| Home | 17-25-0 | 21-19-1 | |
| Away | 25-15-2 | 17-23-1 |
Miami Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | Home | Detroit | -9.5 | W by 1 | -8.5 |
| 10/27 | Away | Boston | +8.5 | L by 8 | +0.5 |
| 10/28 | Away | Minnesota | +8.5 | L by 16 | -7.5 |
| 10/30 | Away | Milwaukee | +7.5 | L by 8 | -0.5 |
| 11/01 | Home | Brooklyn | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | Washington | -8.5 | W by 7 | -1.5 |
| 11/06 | Home | LA Lakers | -1.5 | W by 1 | -0.5 |
| 11/08 | Away | Memphis | -1.5 | W by 6 | +4.5 |
| 11/11 | Away | Atlanta | +7.5 | W by 8 | +15.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | San Antonio | -2.0 | W by 5 | +3.0 |
| 11/14 | Away | Charlotte | -6.5 | W by 6 | -0.5 |
| 11/16 | Home | Brooklyn | -3.5 | W by 7 | +3.5 |
| 11/18 | Away | Chicago | -1.5 | L by 5 | -6.5 |
| 11/20 | Away | Chicago | -1.5 | W by 18 | +16.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Cleveland | +1.5 | W by 33 | +34.5 |
| 11/24 | Away | New York | +5.5 | L by 2 | +3.5 |
| 11/25 | Away | Brooklyn | +7.5 | L by 15 | -7.5 |
| 11/28 | Home | Milwaukee | +4.0 | L by 7 | -3.0 |
| 11/30 | Home | Indiana | -4.0 | W by 10 | +6.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Indiana | -4.5 | L by 15 | -19.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Toronto | +4.0 | W by 9 | +13.0 |
| 12/08 | Home | Cleveland | +1.5 | L by 12 | -10.5 |
| 12/11 | Away | Charlotte | -4.5 | W by 2 | -2.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Charlotte | -7.5 | W by 11 | +3.5 |
| 12/14 | Home | Chicago | -3.5 | L by 8 | -11.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago | -4.5 | W by 2 | -2.5 |
| 12/18 | Home | Minnesota | +1.5 | L by 4 | -2.5 |
| 12/20 | Away | Orlando | +5.5 | W by 9 | +14.5 |
| 12/22 | Home | Atlanta | -1.0 | W by 9 | +8.0 |
| 12/25 | Home | Philadelphia | -2.0 | W by 6 | +4.0 |
| 12/28 | Away | Golden State | +6.5 | W by 12 | +18.5 |
| 12/30 | Away | Utah | -3.0 | L by 8 | -11.0 |
| 01/01 | Away | LA Clippers | +8.0 | L by 17 | -9.0 |
| 01/03 | Away | LA Lakers | +5.0 | W by 14 | +19.0 |
| 01/05 | Away | Phoenix | +2.5 | L by 16 | -13.5 |
| 01/08 | Home | Houston | -4.0 | W by 7 | +3.0 |
| 01/10 | Home | Okla City | +4.5 | L by 8 | -3.5 |
| 01/12 | Home | Orlando | -1.0 | W by 3 | +2.0 |
| 01/14 | Home | Charlotte | -8.5 | W by 17 | +8.5 |
| 01/15 | Away | Brooklyn | -1.0 | W by 1 | 0.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Toronto | -3.0 | L by 24 | -27.0 |
| 01/19 | Home | Atlanta | -7.0 | L by 1 | -8.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Orlando | +1.0 | L by 18 | -17.0 |
| 01/24 | Home | Memphis | -11.5 | L by 9 | -20.5 |
| 01/25 | Home | Boston | +8.5 | L by 33 | -24.5 |
| 01/27 | Away | New York | +4.5 | L by 16 | -11.5 |
| 01/29 | Home | Phoenix | -2.0 | L by 13 | -15.0 |
| 01/31 | Home | Sacramento | -2.5 | W by 9 | +6.5 |
| 02/02 | Away | Washington | -7.5 | W by 8 | +0.5 |
| 02/04 | Home | LA Clippers | +5.0 | L by 8 | -3.0 |
| 02/06 | Home | Orlando | -3.5 | W by 26 | +22.5 |
| 02/07 | Home | San Antonio | -8.0 | W by 12 | +4.0 |
| 02/11 | Home | Boston | +8.0 | L by 4 | +4.0 |
| 02/13 | Away | Milwaukee | +7.0 | W by 26 | +33.0 |
| 02/14 | Away | Philadelphia | +2.5 | W by 5 | +7.5 |
| 02/23 | Away | New Orleans | +2.0 | W by 11 | +13.0 |
| 02/26 | Away | Sacramento | +7.5 | W by 11 | +18.5 |
| 02/27 | Away | Portland | -6.5 | W by 10 | +3.5 |
| 02/29 | Away | Denver | +6.5 | L by 6 | +0.5 |
| 03/02 | Home | Utah | -9.0 | W by 6 | -3.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Detroit | -11.0 | W by 8 | -3.0 |
| 03/07 | Away | Dallas | +4.5 | L by 6 | -1.5 |
| 03/08 | Away | Okla City | +8.5 | L by 7 | +1.5 |
| 03/10 | Home | Washington | -11.5 | L by 2 | -13.5 |
| 03/13 | Home | Denver | +3.5 | L by 12 | -8.5 |
| 03/15 | Away | Detroit | -7.5 | W by 13 | +5.5 |
| 03/17 | Away | Detroit | -5.5 | W by 3 | -2.5 |
| 03/18 | Away | Philadelphia | +3.0 | L by 7 | -4.0 |
| 03/20 | Away | Cleveland | +3.0 | W by 3 | +6.0 |
| 03/22 | Home | New Orleans | -3.0 | L by 23 | -26.0 |
| 03/24 | Home | Cleveland | -3.5 | W by 37 | +33.5 |
| 03/26 | Home | Golden State | +5.0 | L by 21 | -16.0 |
| 03/29 | Home | Portland | -14.0 | W by 60 | +46.0 |
| 03/31 | Away | Washington | -12.0 | W by 12 | 0.0 |
| 04/02 | Home | New York | -2.5 | W by 10 | +7.5 |
| 04/04 | Home | Philadelphia | -3.0 | L by 4 | -7.0 |
| 04/05 | Away | Houston | -3.0 | W by 15 | +12.0 |
| 04/07 | Away | Indiana | +3.0 | L by 2 | +1.0 |
| 04/09 | Away | Atlanta | -3.5 | W by 6 | +2.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Dallas | +2.5 | L by 19 | -16.5 |
| 04/12 | Home | Toronto | -14.0 | W by 22 | +8.0 |
| 04/14 | Home | Toronto | -16.0 | W by 15 | -1.0 |
| 04/17 | Away | Philadelphia | +5.5 | L by 1 | +4.5 |
| 04/19 | Home | Chicago | -2.0 | W by 21 | +19.0 |
Denver Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/24 | Home | LA Lakers | -5.0 | W by 12 | +7.0 |
| 10/27 | Away | Memphis | -6.0 | W by 4 | -2.0 |
| 10/29 | Away | Okla City | -3.5 | W by 33 | +29.5 |
| 10/30 | Home | Utah | -9.0 | W by 8 | -1.0 |
| 11/01 | Away | Minnesota | -2.0 | L by 21 | -23.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | Dallas | -6.0 | W by 11 | +5.0 |
| 11/04 | Home | Chicago | -9.0 | W by 22 | +13.0 |
| 11/06 | Home | New Orleans | -6.5 | W by 18 | +11.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | Golden State | -4.5 | W by 3 | -1.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | Houston | -5.0 | L by 3 | -8.0 |
| 11/14 | Home | LA Clippers | -4.5 | W by 3 | -1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | New Orleans | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 11/19 | Away | Cleveland | -4.5 | L by 12 | -16.5 |
| 11/20 | Away | Detroit | -9.5 | W by 4 | -5.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Orlando | -3.0 | L by 5 | -8.0 |
| 11/24 | Away | Houston | -3.0 | L by 19 | -22.0 |
| 11/26 | Home | San Antonio | -10.5 | W by 12 | +1.5 |
| 11/27 | Away | LA Clippers | +11.0 | W by 9 | +20.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Houston | -10.0 | W by 10 | 0.0 |
| 12/01 | Away | Phoenix | -1.0 | W by 8 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Sacramento | +3.5 | L by 6 | -2.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | LA Clippers | +1.0 | L by 9 | -8.0 |
| 12/08 | Home | Houston | -9.0 | L by 8 | -17.0 |
| 12/11 | Away | Atlanta | -3.5 | W by 7 | +3.5 |
| 12/12 | Away | Chicago | -6.5 | W by 8 | +1.5 |
| 12/14 | Home | Brooklyn | -9.0 | W by 23 | +14.0 |
| 12/16 | Home | Okla City | -5.0 | L by 1 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | Home | Dallas | -8.0 | W by 26 | +18.0 |
| 12/20 | Away | Toronto | -3.5 | W by 9 | +5.5 |
| 12/22 | Away | Brooklyn | -4.5 | W by 5 | +0.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | Charlotte | -11.0 | W by 7 | -4.0 |
| 12/25 | Home | Golden State | -7.5 | W by 6 | -1.5 |
| 12/28 | Home | Memphis | -9.0 | W by 37 | +28.0 |
| 12/29 | Home | Okla City | -2.0 | L by 26 | -28.0 |
| 01/01 | Home | Charlotte | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 01/04 | Away | Golden State | -4.0 | W by 3 | -1.0 |
| 01/05 | Home | Orlando | -10.0 | L by 2 | -12.0 |
| 01/07 | Home | Detroit | -16.0 | W by 17 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | Utah | -7.0 | L by 13 | -20.0 |
| 01/12 | Home | New Orleans | -5.5 | W by 12 | +6.5 |
| 01/14 | Home | Indiana | -10.5 | W by 8 | -2.5 |
| 01/16 | Away | Philadelphia | +2.0 | L by 5 | -3.0 |
| 01/19 | Away | Boston | +7.0 | W by 2 | +9.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Washington | -12.5 | W by 9 | -3.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Indiana | -5.0 | W by 5 | 0.0 |
| 01/25 | Away | New York | -2.5 | L by 38 | -40.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Philadelphia | -8.0 | W by 6 | -2.0 |
| 01/29 | Home | Milwaukee | -4.0 | W by 6 | +2.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Okla City | +6.0 | L by 5 | +1.0 |
| 02/02 | Home | Portland | -14.5 | W by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/04 | Home | Portland | -15.0 | W by 9 | -6.0 |
| 02/08 | Away | LA Lakers | -3.0 | W by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/09 | Away | Sacramento | +3.0 | L by 29 | -26.0 |
| 02/12 | Away | Milwaukee | +1.0 | L by 17 | -16.0 |
| 02/14 | Home | Sacramento | -5.5 | L by 4 | -9.5 |
| 02/22 | Home | Washington | -15.5 | W by 20 | +4.5 |
| 02/23 | Away | Portland | -8.0 | W by 15 | +7.0 |
| 02/25 | Away | Golden State | +2.0 | W by 16 | +18.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Sacramento | -9.0 | W by 21 | +12.0 |
| 02/29 | Home | Miami | -6.5 | W by 6 | -0.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | LA Lakers | -1.0 | W by 10 | +9.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Phoenix | -8.5 | L by 10 | -18.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Boston | +2.0 | W by 6 | +8.0 |
| 03/09 | Home | Utah | -12.5 | W by 21 | +8.5 |
| 03/11 | Home | Toronto | -17.0 | W by 6 | -11.0 |
| 03/13 | Away | Miami | -3.5 | W by 12 | +8.5 |
| 03/15 | Away | San Antonio | -10.5 | W by 11 | +0.5 |
| 03/17 | Away | Dallas | -1.0 | L by 2 | -3.0 |
| 03/19 | Away | Minnesota | -7.5 | W by 3 | -4.5 |
| 03/21 | Home | New York | -8.5 | W by 13 | +4.5 |
| 03/23 | Away | Portland | -10.5 | W by 3 | -7.5 |
| 03/25 | Home | Memphis | -12.5 | W by 25 | +12.5 |
| 03/27 | Home | Phoenix | -5.5 | L by 7 | -12.5 |
| 03/29 | Home | Minnesota | -3.0 | L by 13 | -16.0 |
| 03/31 | Home | Cleveland | -4.5 | W by 29 | +24.5 |
| 04/02 | Home | San Antonio | -15.5 | W by 5 | -10.5 |
| 04/04 | Away | LA Clippers | -3.5 | L by 2 | -5.5 |
| 04/06 | Home | Atlanta | -10.5 | W by 32 | +21.5 |
| 04/09 | Away | Utah | -15.5 | W by 16 | +0.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Minnesota | -7.5 | W by 9 | +1.5 |
| 04/12 | Away | San Antonio | -11.5 | L by 1 | -12.5 |
| 04/14 | Away | Memphis | -13.5 | W by 15 | +1.5 |
| DEN -5.5 | Open | -2.5 | High | -6.0 |
| Last | -5.0 | Low | -2.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NBA season there have been 1089 games where the closing line favored the home team by 4 to 6 points. In these games:
- The team like Denver won the game 727 times (66.8%).
- The team like Miami won the game 362 times (33.2%).
- The team like Denver did better against the spread, going 549-519-21 (51.4% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.2 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NBA season there have been 154 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by 2.5 points more than the opening line.
In these games, the team like Denver did better against the spread, going 83-69-2 (54.6% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 2.0 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -5.0 | -5.5 | -5.0 |
| Open | -5.5 | -4.0 | -4.5 |
| History | |||
| 04/14 10:08 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 10:05 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 04/14 09:46 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 09:19 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 09:07 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 08:55 PM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 04/14 08:34 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 08:24 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 04/14 08:19 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 08:15 PM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 04/14 08:07 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 07:59 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 06:54 PM | -- | -6.0 | -- |
| 04/14 06:53 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 06:46 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 06:37 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 06:34 PM | -- | -5.5 | -- |
| 04/14 05:54 PM | -- | -6.0 | -- |
| 04/14 05:17 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 04:14 PM | -- | -6.5 | -- |
| 04/14 03:58 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 03:34 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 03:34 PM | -- | -6.0 | -- |
| 04/14 03:25 PM | -- | -- | -6.0 |
| 04/14 03:20 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 03:14 PM | -6.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 03:07 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 02:10 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 02:05 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 04/14 02:01 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 12:41 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 12:25 PM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 04/14 12:04 PM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 12:04 PM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 04/14 11:59 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 11:55 AM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 04/14 11:47 AM | -5.5 | -- | -- |
| 04/14 10:24 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 04/14 10:15 AM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 04/13 06:04 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 04/13 05:54 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
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