NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA DEN
Points 105.8 111.0
Total Points   216.8
Points From 2-Pointers 53.9 61.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.3 35.2
Points From Free Throws 18.6 14.0
Shooting MIA DEN
Field Goals Made 38.0 42.6
Field Goals Attempted 85.5 86.3
Field Goal % 44.5% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.0 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.4 53.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.6% 58.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 31.2 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 18.6 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 18.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 76.8%
Ball Control MIA DEN
Rebounds 45.9 49.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.4 38.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.5
Turnovers 10.4 11.4
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.1
Steals 6.4 5.6
Fouls 15.3 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA DEN
Total Possessions 98.2
Effective Scoring Chances 98.3 97.3
% of Possessions with MIA DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.1% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 30.1%
Player Fouled 16.9% 15.6%
Turnover 10.6% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA DEN
Shot Blocked 6.0% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.4% 22.9%