NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA IND
Points 113.6 116.9
Total Points   230.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.0 64.0
Points From 3-Pointers 31.0 38.2
Points From Free Throws 21.6 14.7
Shooting MIA IND
Field Goals Made 40.8 44.7
Field Goals Attempted 85.8 88.6
Field Goal % 47.6% 50.5%
2 Pointers Made 30.5 32.0
2 Pointers Attempted 57.4 52.6
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 60.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 28.4 36.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 21.6 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 18.9
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA IND
Rebounds 47.1 46.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.7
Turnovers 11.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.5
Steals 6.1 6.0
Fouls 15.8 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA IND
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 100.9 99.8
% of Possessions with MIA IND
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 31.9%
Player Fouled 19.1% 15.5%
Turnover 11.5% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA IND
Shot Blocked 6.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 21.2%