NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA IND
Points 113.6 117.8
Total Points   231.4
Points From 2-Pointers 62.2 63.3
Points From 3-Pointers 29.9 39.8
Points From Free Throws 21.6 14.8
Shooting MIA IND
Field Goals Made 41.0 44.9
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 88.1
Field Goal % 47.7% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.1 31.6
2 Pointers Attempted 58.5 52.1
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 60.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 36.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 21.6 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 26.7 19.2
Free Throw % 80.8% 76.8%
Ball Control MIA IND
Rebounds 47.0 45.8
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 36.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 9.6
Turnovers 11.7 11.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 5.6
Steals 6.2 6.0
Fouls 15.8 19.5

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA IND
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 101.1 99.5
% of Possessions with MIA IND
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 32.0%
Player Fouled 19.2% 15.5%
Turnover 11.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA IND
Shot Blocked 6.4% 4.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.3% 21.0%