NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA IND
Points 113.5 117.0
Total Points   230.5
Points From 2-Pointers 61.3 63.9
Points From 3-Pointers 30.5 38.4
Points From Free Throws 21.6 14.6
Shooting MIA IND
Field Goals Made 40.8 44.8
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 88.8
Field Goal % 47.5% 50.4%
2 Pointers Made 30.7 31.9
2 Pointers Attempted 57.8 52.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 60.8%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 28.2 36.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 21.6 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 26.4 18.9
Free Throw % 82.0% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA IND
Rebounds 47.2 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 36.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 9.8
Turnovers 11.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.3 5.4
Steals 6.1 5.9
Fouls 15.7 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA IND
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 99.9
% of Possessions with MIA IND
2 Point Attempt 50.3% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 32.1%
Player Fouled 19.0% 15.4%
Turnover 11.4% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA IND
Shot Blocked 6.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.0% 21.3%