NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA DET
Points 114.2 105.7
Total Points   220.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.8 56.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 34.0
Points From Free Throws 20.1 15.7
Shooting MIA DET
Field Goals Made 41.2 39.4
Field Goals Attempted 85.1 85.0
Field Goal % 48.4% 46.3%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 28.0
2 Pointers Attempted 53.2 51.2
2 Point Shooting % 55.2% 54.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 11.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.9 33.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 20.1 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.7 20.0
Free Throw % 81.5% 78.3%
Ball Control MIA DET
Rebounds 47.2 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 36.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.1
Turnovers 10.8 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.8 4.1
Steals 8.2 5.4
Fouls 15.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA DET
Total Possessions 100.7
Effective Scoring Chances 99.4 97.0
% of Possessions with MIA DET
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.5% 30.1%
Player Fouled 18.4% 14.9%
Turnover 10.8% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA DET
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 21.2%