NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA TOR
Points 116.2 107.4
Total Points   223.6
Points From 2-Pointers 59.0 57.9
Points From 3-Pointers 40.1 34.5
Points From Free Throws 17.1 15.0
Shooting MIA TOR
Field Goals Made 42.9 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 88.2 86.8
Field Goal % 48.6% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 29.5 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 52.5 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 35.7 35.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 17.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 19.6
Free Throw % 81.7% 76.6%
Ball Control MIA TOR
Rebounds 49.6 46.1
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 35.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.4
Turnovers 11.9 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.0 4.1
Steals 6.8 6.2
Fouls 15.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA TOR
Total Possessions 101.0
Effective Scoring Chances 100.5 98.4
% of Possessions with MIA TOR
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 31.0%
Player Fouled 16.9% 15.2%
Turnover 11.8% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA TOR
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 21.5%