NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA SA
Points 110.8 107.7
Total Points   218.5
Points From 2-Pointers 58.2 55.2
Points From 3-Pointers 36.0 38.5
Points From Free Throws 16.6 14.0
Shooting MIA SA
Field Goals Made 41.1 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.4 87.0
Field Goal % 46.0% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 27.6
2 Pointers Attempted 56.8 48.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.7 38.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 16.6 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.0
Free Throw % 82.0% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA SA
Rebounds 48.6 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 39.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 10.3
Turnovers 11.3 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.6
Steals 8.3 5.7
Fouls 15.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA SA
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 100.6 98.0
% of Possessions with MIA SA
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 33.6%
Player Fouled 15.2% 14.7%
Turnover 11.1% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA SA
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.8% 21.1%