NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA OKC
Points 107.5 116.9
Total Points   224.4
Points From 2-Pointers 49.5 59.3
Points From 3-Pointers 38.6 41.4
Points From Free Throws 19.4 16.1
Shooting MIA OKC
Field Goals Made 37.6 43.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.2 86.3
Field Goal % 43.7% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 51.1 50.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.4% 59.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.9 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 36.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 19.4 16.1
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 19.5
Free Throw % 80.8% 82.8%
Ball Control MIA OKC
Rebounds 47.7 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.9 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 8.6
Turnovers 13.0 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.2 6.3
Steals 6.5 6.4
Fouls 16.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA OKC
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 99.8 97.8
% of Possessions with MIA OKC
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 32.6%
Player Fouled 17.1% 16.3%
Turnover 12.9% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA OKC
Shot Blocked 7.3% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 19.3%