NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MIN
Points 102.3 108.4
Total Points   210.7
Points From 2-Pointers 48.9 53.5
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 38.4
Points From Free Throws 18.9 16.4
Shooting MIA MIN
Field Goals Made 35.9 39.6
Field Goals Attempted 83.5 82.0
Field Goal % 43.1% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 24.4 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 51.9 47.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.1% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 34.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 18.9 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 23.1 21.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA MIN
Rebounds 45.8 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 35.7 39.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 9.3
Turnovers 12.3 13.2
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.4
Steals 7.2 6.5
Fouls 17.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MIN
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 96.6 94.9
% of Possessions with MIA MIN
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 43.3%
3 Point Attempt 28.4% 31.7%
Player Fouled 17.6% 17.5%
Turnover 12.5% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MIN
Shot Blocked 6.6% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 20.8%