NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA POR
Points 112.9 103.1
Total Points   216.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.3 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 34.5 34.1
Points From Free Throws 20.1 14.7
Shooting MIA POR
Field Goals Made 40.6 38.5
Field Goals Attempted 83.1 86.5
Field Goal % 48.9% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 50.5 52.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.5 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.5 34.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 20.1 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 24.6 18.6
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.4%
Ball Control MIA POR
Rebounds 47.5 46.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.2 12.5
Turnovers 12.0 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.0
Steals 8.2 6.0
Fouls 14.9 18.5

Playing Style Advantage: Portland

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA POR
Total Possessions 99.3
Effective Scoring Chances 97.5 97.9
% of Possessions with MIA POR
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 30.2%
Player Fouled 18.6% 15.0%
Turnover 12.1% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA POR
Shot Blocked 4.7% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 25.1%