NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA MIA
Points 111.0 117.2
Total Points   228.2
Points From 2-Pointers 55.3 55.5
Points From 3-Pointers 38.4 43.5
Points From Free Throws 17.3 18.1
Shooting UTA MIA
Field Goals Made 40.5 42.3
Field Goals Attempted 85.9 88.8
Field Goal % 47.1% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 27.7 27.8
2 Pointers Attempted 48.1 52.2
2 Point Shooting % 57.5% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.8 14.5
3 Pointers Attempted 37.8 36.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 39.6%
Free Throws Made 17.3 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.7 22.2
Free Throw % 83.7% 81.5%
Ball Control UTA MIA
Rebounds 49.2 46.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 35.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.8 11.0
Turnovers 14.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.2
Steals 5.0 7.9
Fouls 16.8 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Utah

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA MIA
Total Possessions 100.7
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 101.4
% of Possessions with UTA MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 33.1% 32.3%
Player Fouled 15.9% 16.6%
Turnover 14.0% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 4.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA MIA
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 22.7%