NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA HOU
Points 117.5 122.3
Total Points   239.9
Points From 2-Pointers 58.5 59.3
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 44.4
Points From Free Throws 22.6 18.7
Shooting UTA HOU
Field Goals Made 41.4 44.4
Field Goals Attempted 87.5 93.9
Field Goal % 47.3% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 29.3 29.6
2 Pointers Attempted 51.6 54.9
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 14.8
3 Pointers Attempted 35.9 39.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 22.6 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 26.9 24.3
Free Throw % 83.7% 76.8%
Ball Control UTA HOU
Rebounds 51.7 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 34.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.5 13.9
Turnovers 14.0 10.1
Blocked Shots 5.8 6.0
Steals 5.5 7.9
Fouls 17.3 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Utah

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA HOU
Total Possessions 103.8
Effective Scoring Chances 103.3 107.6
% of Possessions with UTA HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.1% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 32.5%
Player Fouled 18.0% 16.7%
Turnover 13.5% 9.7%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA HOU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 28.3% 26.6%