NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTA SA
Points 116.8 120.3
Total Points   237.1
Points From 2-Pointers 62.6 60.8
Points From 3-Pointers 36.5 43.8
Points From Free Throws 17.8 15.7
Shooting UTA SA
Field Goals Made 43.4 45.0
Field Goals Attempted 92.7 92.9
Field Goal % 46.8% 48.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.3 30.4
2 Pointers Attempted 58.5 54.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.5% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 14.6
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 38.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 17.8 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 20.2
Free Throw % 83.7% 77.6%
Ball Control UTA SA
Rebounds 51.2 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 13.4 12.2
Turnovers 13.6 12.1
Blocked Shots 4.9 7.9
Steals 6.8 7.2
Fouls 15.7 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTA SA
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 104.4 104.6
% of Possessions with UTA SA
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 32.3%
Player Fouled 14.7% 15.0%
Turnover 13.0% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTA SA
Shot Blocked 8.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 24.4%