NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NY MIA
Points 108.7 104.9
Total Points   213.5
Points From 2-Pointers 51.8 52.6
Points From 3-Pointers 41.7 35.7
Points From Free Throws 15.2 16.5
Shooting NY MIA
Field Goals Made 39.8 38.2
Field Goals Attempted 85.7 84.4
Field Goal % 46.4% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.9 26.3
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 51.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.9 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 38.8 33.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 15.2 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 20.4
Free Throw % 78.1% 80.8%
Ball Control NY MIA
Rebounds 50.5 45.4
Rebounds - Defensive 37.6 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 12.9 10.3
Turnovers 12.2 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.3 3.3
Steals 5.8 6.2
Fouls 16.3 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NY MIA
Total Possessions 97.0
Effective Scoring Chances 97.7 96.2
% of Possessions with NY MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.1% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 34.9% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.0% 16.8%
Turnover 12.5% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NY MIA
Shot Blocked 3.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.8% 21.5%