NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NY HOU
Points 114.7 112.1
Total Points   226.8
Points From 2-Pointers 56.3 56.7
Points From 3-Pointers 38.0 37.8
Points From Free Throws 20.4 17.5
Shooting NY HOU
Field Goals Made 40.8 41.0
Field Goals Attempted 87.7 88.9
Field Goal % 46.5% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 28.2 28.4
2 Pointers Attempted 52.0 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 35.8 36.1
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 20.4 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 26.2 22.8
Free Throw % 78.1% 76.8%
Ball Control NY HOU
Rebounds 52.3 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 34.8
Rebounds - Offensive 15.0 13.2
Turnovers 11.9 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.6
Steals 6.6 6.2
Fouls 17.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NY HOU
Total Possessions 100.3
Effective Scoring Chances 103.4 102.3
% of Possessions with NY HOU
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 31.3%
Player Fouled 18.5% 16.9%
Turnover 11.8% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken NY HOU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.1% 26.1%