NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL MIA
Points 113.1 111.6
Total Points   224.7
Points From 2-Pointers 60.2 55.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 41.3
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.1
Shooting LAL MIA
Field Goals Made 42.1 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 83.7 90.6
Field Goal % 50.2% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 30.1 27.6
2 Pointers Attempted 50.8 54.1
2 Point Shooting % 59.2% 51.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 13.8
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 36.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 18.6
Free Throw % 77.6% 81.5%
Ball Control LAL MIA
Rebounds 47.8 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 39.8 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.0 10.8
Turnovers 12.9 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.2
Steals 5.7 7.7
Fouls 14.1 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL MIA
Total Possessions 101.6
Effective Scoring Chances 96.7 101.2
% of Possessions with LAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 32.0%
Player Fouled 16.7% 13.9%
Turnover 12.7% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 18.0% 21.4%