NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL MIA
Points 112.5 111.5
Total Points   223.9
Points From 2-Pointers 59.7 54.7
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 41.8
Points From Free Throws 16.7 15.0
Shooting LAL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.9 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 83.3 90.2
Field Goal % 50.3% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 29.8 27.4
2 Pointers Attempted 50.3 53.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.3% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 13.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.0 36.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 16.7 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 18.3
Free Throw % 77.8% 81.9%
Ball Control LAL MIA
Rebounds 47.4 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 36.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 10.6
Turnovers 13.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.1
Steals 5.8 7.6
Fouls 14.2 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL MIA
Total Possessions 101.2
Effective Scoring Chances 95.9 100.6
% of Possessions with LAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 32.4%
Player Fouled 16.7% 14.0%
Turnover 12.9% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 17.6% 21.1%