NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL MIA
Points 103.7 102.9
Total Points   206.6
Points From 2-Pointers 50.2 52.0
Points From 3-Pointers 37.2 34.1
Points From Free Throws 16.3 16.7
Shooting LAL MIA
Field Goals Made 37.5 37.4
Field Goals Attempted 81.7 82.0
Field Goal % 45.9% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 25.1 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.9 48.6
2 Point Shooting % 54.6% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.4 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.8 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 16.3 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 21.3
Free Throw % 74.1% 78.8%
Ball Control LAL MIA
Rebounds 48.9 45.2
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 36.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.6
Turnovers 15.4 14.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.7
Steals 7.2 8.3
Fouls 18.4 19.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL MIA
Total Possessions 99.9
Effective Scoring Chances 95.2 94.4
% of Possessions with LAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.0% 44.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.0% 30.3%
Player Fouled 19.2% 18.4%
Turnover 15.4% 14.1%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL MIA
Shot Blocked 4.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 18.3%