NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL MIA
Points 112.5 111.3
Total Points   223.7
Points From 2-Pointers 59.5 55.1
Points From 3-Pointers 36.3 41.2
Points From Free Throws 16.6 15.0
Shooting LAL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.9 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 83.4 90.4
Field Goal % 50.2% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.8 27.5
2 Pointers Attempted 50.2 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.2% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.1 13.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.2 36.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.5% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 16.6 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 18.3
Free Throw % 77.8% 82.0%
Ball Control LAL MIA
Rebounds 47.5 47.0
Rebounds - Defensive 39.7 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 10.7
Turnovers 13.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.5 3.1
Steals 5.7 7.6
Fouls 14.2 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL MIA
Total Possessions 101.2
Effective Scoring Chances 96.0 100.8
% of Possessions with LAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 45.6% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 32.2%
Player Fouled 16.6% 14.0%
Turnover 12.8% 10.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 17.7% 21.2%