NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL DAL
Points 118.3 121.0
Total Points   239.3
Points From 2-Pointers 63.0 59.6
Points From 3-Pointers 35.9 46.6
Points From Free Throws 19.5 14.8
Shooting LAL DAL
Field Goals Made 43.4 45.4
Field Goals Attempted 86.9 94.0
Field Goal % 50.0% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.5 29.8
2 Pointers Attempted 55.9 52.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.4% 56.5%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 15.5
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 41.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 37.6%
Free Throws Made 19.5 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.3 19.4
Free Throw % 77.1% 75.9%
Ball Control LAL DAL
Rebounds 48.9 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.6 37.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 11.4
Turnovers 12.4 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.6
Steals 6.1 6.7
Fouls 15.4 18.1

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL DAL
Total Possessions 104.5
Effective Scoring Chances 101.4 105.3
% of Possessions with LAL DAL
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 44.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 35.1%
Player Fouled 17.3% 14.8%
Turnover 11.8% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL DAL
Shot Blocked 5.0% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.0% 22.3%