NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL DEN
Points 113.1 117.7
Total Points   230.8
Points From 2-Pointers 63.2 67.2
Points From 3-Pointers 30.8 37.1
Points From Free Throws 19.1 13.3
Shooting LAL DEN
Field Goals Made 41.9 46.0
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 93.9
Field Goal % 48.7% 49.0%
2 Pointers Made 31.6 33.6
2 Pointers Attempted 58.7 61.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 10.3 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 32.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 37.8%
Free Throws Made 19.1 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 17.3
Free Throw % 77.1% 77.2%
Ball Control LAL DEN
Rebounds 46.4 50.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.9 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 12.8
Turnovers 11.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.8 5.4
Steals 6.0 6.9
Fouls 13.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL DEN
Total Possessions 101.7
Effective Scoring Chances 99.9 103.8
% of Possessions with LAL DEN
2 Point Attempt 51.7% 52.6%
3 Point Attempt 24.1% 28.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 13.2%
Turnover 11.1% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL DEN
Shot Blocked 5.9% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 25.7%