NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL NO
Points 113.8 115.8
Total Points   229.6
Points From 2-Pointers 58.7 61.4
Points From 3-Pointers 37.3 39.9
Points From Free Throws 17.8 14.5
Shooting LAL NO
Field Goals Made 41.8 44.0
Field Goals Attempted 83.8 91.9
Field Goal % 49.9% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 29.4 30.7
2 Pointers Attempted 49.9 57.2
2 Point Shooting % 58.9% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.4 13.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.0 34.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 38.3%
Free Throws Made 17.8 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.8 18.7
Free Throw % 77.8% 77.4%
Ball Control LAL NO
Rebounds 46.2 48.2
Rebounds - Defensive 37.9 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 11.9
Turnovers 13.4 11.3
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.4
Steals 5.7 8.1
Fouls 13.7 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL NO
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 97.0 102.6
% of Possessions with LAL NO
2 Point Attempt 44.5% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 17.4% 13.4%
Turnover 13.1% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL NO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 18.6% 23.9%