NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL HOU
Points 118.6 116.4
Total Points   235.0
Points From 2-Pointers 62.9 58.7
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 42.1
Points From Free Throws 22.0 15.6
Shooting LAL HOU
Field Goals Made 42.7 43.4
Field Goals Attempted 84.6 95.7
Field Goal % 50.5% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 31.5 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 53.6 56.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 14.0
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 38.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 22.0 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 28.3 20.3
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.8%
Ball Control LAL HOU
Rebounds 49.9 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 40.7 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.6
Turnovers 12.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.5
Steals 6.3 7.7
Fouls 14.6 19.9

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL HOU
Total Possessions 104.7
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 107.3
% of Possessions with LAL HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 32.2%
Player Fouled 19.0% 14.0%
Turnover 12.3% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 25.1%