NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL HOU
Points 118.8 116.8
Total Points   235.7
Points From 2-Pointers 63.4 58.7
Points From 3-Pointers 33.7 42.4
Points From Free Throws 21.8 15.6
Shooting LAL HOU
Field Goals Made 42.9 43.5
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 95.8
Field Goal % 50.7% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 31.7 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 53.6 56.8
2 Point Shooting % 59.1% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 14.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 39.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 21.8 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 28.2 20.4
Free Throw % 77.3% 76.8%
Ball Control LAL HOU
Rebounds 49.9 49.6
Rebounds - Defensive 40.6 35.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 13.6
Turnovers 13.0 11.0
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.5
Steals 6.3 7.8
Fouls 14.7 19.8

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL HOU
Total Possessions 104.8
Effective Scoring Chances 101.0 107.4
% of Possessions with LAL HOU
2 Point Attempt 46.3% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.8% 32.3%
Player Fouled 18.9% 14.0%
Turnover 12.4% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.4% 25.1%