NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring LAL SA
Points 119.6 114.3
Total Points   233.9
Points From 2-Pointers 68.0 60.6
Points From 3-Pointers 33.9 40.4
Points From Free Throws 17.7 13.3
Shooting LAL SA
Field Goals Made 45.3 43.8
Field Goals Attempted 89.1 94.9
Field Goal % 50.8% 46.1%
2 Pointers Made 34.0 30.3
2 Pointers Attempted 60.2 57.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 13.5
3 Pointers Attempted 28.8 37.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.1% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 17.7 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 17.1
Free Throw % 77.1% 77.7%
Ball Control LAL SA
Rebounds 49.1 49.7
Rebounds - Defensive 40.4 37.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.3
Turnovers 12.5 12.8
Blocked Shots 4.8 6.2
Steals 7.5 7.2
Fouls 13.4 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats LAL SA
Total Possessions 105.4
Effective Scoring Chances 101.6 104.9
% of Possessions with LAL SA
2 Point Attempt 51.6% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 24.7% 31.4%
Player Fouled 15.7% 12.8%
Turnover 11.9% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken LAL SA
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 23.4%