NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORL MIA
Points 106.7 103.3
Total Points   210.0
Points From 2-Pointers 55.2 52.4
Points From 3-Pointers 34.8 32.1
Points From Free Throws 16.6 18.8
Shooting ORL MIA
Field Goals Made 39.2 36.9
Field Goals Attempted 81.4 81.3
Field Goal % 48.2% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.6 26.2
2 Pointers Attempted 48.4 50.8
2 Point Shooting % 57.0% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 11.6 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 33.0 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 16.6 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.2 23.3
Free Throw % 74.6% 80.8%
Ball Control ORL MIA
Rebounds 47.9 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.4 34.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.1
Turnovers 13.7 12.7
Blocked Shots 4.8 2.9
Steals 6.6 7.4
Fouls 18.6 17.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORL MIA
Total Possessions 98.3
Effective Scoring Chances 95.1 94.6
% of Possessions with ORL MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 27.9%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.0%
Turnover 13.9% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.7% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 19.5%