NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ORL MIA
Points 105.1 104.3
Total Points   209.4
Points From 2-Pointers 54.9 51.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 33.6
Points From Free Throws 16.7 18.8
Shooting ORL MIA
Field Goals Made 38.6 37.1
Field Goals Attempted 81.9 81.3
Field Goal % 47.2% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 48.8 50.2
2 Point Shooting % 56.2% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 11.2
3 Pointers Attempted 33.1 31.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 16.7 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 23.0
Free Throw % 75.9% 81.7%
Ball Control ORL MIA
Rebounds 47.5 44.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.1 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 9.0
Turnovers 13.6 13.0
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.0
Steals 6.7 7.6
Fouls 18.3 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ORL MIA
Total Possessions 98.6
Effective Scoring Chances 95.4 94.6
% of Possessions with ORL MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 28.4%
Player Fouled 17.8% 18.5%
Turnover 13.8% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ORL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 19.6%