NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points 114.4 110.0
Total Points   224.4
Points From 2-Pointers 54.2 53.9
Points From 3-Pointers 44.4 37.1
Points From Free Throws 15.8 18.9
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made 41.9 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 86.1 86.8
Field Goal % 48.7% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.1 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 52.7
2 Point Shooting % 59.8% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 14.8 12.4
3 Pointers Attempted 40.8 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.8 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 23.3
Free Throw % 75.9% 80.8%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 47.9 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 38.4 37.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.0
Turnovers 11.3 11.2
Blocked Shots 4.5 2.5
Steals 5.4 6.6
Fouls 17.1 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions 100.5
Effective Scoring Chances 98.6 100.3
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.8% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 36.8% 30.1%
Player Fouled 17.3% 17.1%
Turnover 11.2% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 20.1% 22.3%