NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL MIA
Points 111.1 108.9
Total Points   219.9
Points From 2-Pointers 52.4 52.4
Points From 3-Pointers 43.2 38.3
Points From Free Throws 15.5 18.2
Shooting DAL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.6 38.9
Field Goals Attempted 85.8 86.8
Field Goal % 47.3% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 26.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.0 52.4
2 Point Shooting % 58.2% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 14.4 12.8
3 Pointers Attempted 40.8 34.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 15.5 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 22.2
Free Throw % 75.4% 82.0%
Ball Control DAL MIA
Rebounds 48.5 49.1
Rebounds - Defensive 39.0 38.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.6
Turnovers 11.7 11.4
Blocked Shots 4.7 2.6
Steals 5.5 6.9
Fouls 16.8 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL MIA
Total Possessions 100.4
Effective Scoring Chances 98.2 99.6
% of Possessions with DAL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.5% 46.4%
3 Point Attempt 36.8% 30.5%
Player Fouled 17.1% 16.8%
Turnover 11.7% 11.4%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.1% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 19.9% 21.4%