NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAL TOR
Points 123.8 111.6
Total Points   235.4
Points From 2-Pointers 62.5 59.6
Points From 3-Pointers 45.2 34.8
Points From Free Throws 16.1 17.1
Shooting DAL TOR
Field Goals Made 46.3 41.4
Field Goals Attempted 90.9 90.7
Field Goal % 51.0% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 31.2 29.8
2 Pointers Attempted 50.7 57.3
2 Point Shooting % 61.6% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 15.1 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 40.2 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 16.1 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 22.3
Free Throw % 75.6% 76.6%
Ball Control DAL TOR
Rebounds 51.0 47.9
Rebounds - Defensive 39.4 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 12.2
Turnovers 11.9 12.7
Blocked Shots 6.0 3.6
Steals 6.0 7.0
Fouls 16.2 18.3

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAL TOR
Total Possessions 103.9
Effective Scoring Chances 103.6 103.4
% of Possessions with DAL TOR
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 34.3% 28.2%
Player Fouled 17.6% 15.5%
Turnover 11.4% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAL TOR
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.6% 23.6%