NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK MIA
Points 105.3 109.0
Total Points   214.2
Points From 2-Pointers 50.8 53.2
Points From 3-Pointers 39.6 38.0
Points From Free Throws 14.8 17.7
Shooting BK MIA
Field Goals Made 38.6 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 86.0
Field Goal % 44.9% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 25.4 26.6
2 Pointers Attempted 47.4 51.8
2 Point Shooting % 53.6% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 38.6 34.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 14.8 17.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 21.8
Free Throw % 76.0% 81.5%
Ball Control BK MIA
Rebounds 49.2 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 37.9 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 10.5
Turnovers 12.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.2
Steals 5.4 6.4
Fouls 17.0 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK MIA
Total Possessions 98.8
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 98.4
% of Possessions with BK MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 46.6%
3 Point Attempt 34.7% 30.7%
Player Fouled 15.8% 17.2%
Turnover 12.3% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK MIA
Shot Blocked 3.8% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 21.7%