NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK MIA
Points 107.2 108.1
Total Points   215.3
Points From 2-Pointers 51.0 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 41.5 35.8
Points From Free Throws 14.6 18.1
Shooting BK MIA
Field Goals Made 39.3 39.1
Field Goals Attempted 86.0 85.4
Field Goal % 45.8% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 25.5 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 46.9 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.4% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.8 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 39.1 32.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 14.6 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 22.3
Free Throw % 76.5% 80.8%
Ball Control BK MIA
Rebounds 48.7 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 38.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.5
Turnovers 12.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.0
Steals 5.6 6.2
Fouls 17.1 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK MIA
Total Possessions 98.7
Effective Scoring Chances 97.6 98.2
% of Possessions with BK MIA
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 47.6%
3 Point Attempt 35.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 15.7% 17.4%
Turnover 12.2% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK MIA
Shot Blocked 3.6% 5.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 21.8%