NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK HOU
Points 110.7 113.7
Total Points   224.4
Points From 2-Pointers 53.6 58.0
Points From 3-Pointers 38.0 36.9
Points From Free Throws 19.2 18.8
Shooting BK HOU
Field Goals Made 39.4 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 88.0 90.0
Field Goal % 44.8% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 26.8 29.0
2 Pointers Attempted 50.5 55.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.0% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 37.5 34.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.8% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 19.2 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 25.1 24.4
Free Throw % 76.5% 77.2%
Ball Control BK HOU
Rebounds 50.9 51.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 38.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 13.1
Turnovers 12.0 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.3 4.3
Steals 6.2 6.4
Fouls 17.9 18.4

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK HOU
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 104.0
% of Possessions with BK HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.1% 29.5%
Player Fouled 18.1% 17.5%
Turnover 11.7% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 25.6%