NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK HOU
Points 122.3 109.6
Total Points   231.9
Points From 2-Pointers 58.2 50.5
Points From 3-Pointers 44.9 42.1
Points From Free Throws 19.2 16.9
Shooting BK HOU
Field Goals Made 44.1 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 87.9 89.3
Field Goal % 50.1% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.1 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 50.4 48.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.7% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 15.0 14.0
3 Pointers Attempted 37.5 41.4
3 Point Shooting % 39.9% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 19.2 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 23.7 22.9
Free Throw % 80.9% 73.8%
Ball Control BK HOU
Rebounds 52.5 46.4
Rebounds - Defensive 42.2 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 10.7
Turnovers 13.0 12.5
Blocked Shots 4.9 4.8
Steals 7.0 6.9
Fouls 17.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK HOU
Total Possessions 104.3
Effective Scoring Chances 101.7 102.5
% of Possessions with BK HOU
2 Point Attempt 43.3% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.2% 35.3%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.5%
Turnover 12.4% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK HOU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 20.3%