NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BK SA
Points 112.4 110.9
Total Points   223.3
Points From 2-Pointers 58.7 58.7
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 36.3
Points From Free Throws 15.5 15.9
Shooting BK SA
Field Goals Made 42.1 41.5
Field Goals Attempted 91.7 89.1
Field Goal % 45.9% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 29.3 29.4
2 Pointers Attempted 56.8 55.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 35.0 34.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 15.5 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.4
Free Throw % 76.5% 77.7%
Ball Control BK SA
Rebounds 50.6 50.9
Rebounds - Defensive 38.2 39.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 11.6
Turnovers 11.9 13.2
Blocked Shots 4.6 5.7
Steals 7.6 6.0
Fouls 16.2 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BK SA
Total Possessions 102.8
Effective Scoring Chances 103.2 101.1
% of Possessions with BK SA
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 29.4%
Player Fouled 14.7% 15.8%
Turnover 11.6% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BK SA
Shot Blocked 6.5% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 23.2%