NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN MEM
Points 116.6 102.9
Total Points   219.6
Points From 2-Pointers 64.1 51.4
Points From 3-Pointers 36.6 34.2
Points From Free Throws 16.0 17.4
Shooting DEN MEM
Field Goals Made 44.2 37.1
Field Goals Attempted 88.0 88.3
Field Goal % 50.2% 42.0%
2 Pointers Made 32.0 25.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.9 54.4
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 47.2%
3 Pointers Made 12.2 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 32.1 34.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 16.0 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.7
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.6%
Ball Control DEN MEM
Rebounds 52.5 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 40.1 33.6
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 13.2
Turnovers 12.5 12.3
Blocked Shots 7.1 5.6
Steals 6.9 7.0
Fouls 16.5 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN MEM
Total Possessions 100.1
Effective Scoring Chances 100.0 101.0
% of Possessions with DEN MEM
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 28.0% 29.3%
Player Fouled 16.6% 16.5%
Turnover 12.5% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN MEM
Shot Blocked 6.5% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.9% 24.8%