NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN MIA
Points 110.9 105.8
Total Points   216.8
Points From 2-Pointers 61.7 54.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.3 32.7
Points From Free Throws 14.0 19.0
Shooting DEN MIA
Field Goals Made 42.6 38.0
Field Goals Attempted 86.4 86.0
Field Goal % 49.3% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 30.9 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 55.1
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 49.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 33.0 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.6% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 14.0 19.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 23.3
Free Throw % 76.4% 81.7%
Ball Control DEN MIA
Rebounds 49.3 46.4
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 35.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.1
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN MIA
Total Possessions 98.4
Effective Scoring Chances 97.4 99.1
% of Possessions with DEN MIA
2 Point Attempt 48.4% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 27.7%
Player Fouled 15.4% 16.9%
Turnover 11.7% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN MIA
Shot Blocked 3.6% 6.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 22.1%