NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN MIA
Points 111.2 105.8
Total Points   217.0
Points From 2-Pointers 62.0 54.2
Points From 3-Pointers 35.2 32.7
Points From Free Throws 14.1 18.9
Shooting DEN MIA
Field Goals Made 42.7 38.0
Field Goals Attempted 86.3 86.0
Field Goal % 49.5% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.0 27.1
2 Pointers Attempted 53.4 55.1
2 Point Shooting % 58.0% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 32.9 30.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 14.1 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 23.2
Free Throw % 76.4% 81.5%
Ball Control DEN MIA
Rebounds 49.4 46.2
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 11.0
Turnovers 11.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.1 3.0
Steals 5.5 6.5
Fouls 16.6 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN MIA
Total Possessions 98.4
Effective Scoring Chances 97.4 99.1
% of Possessions with DEN MIA
2 Point Attempt 48.5% 49.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 27.8%
Player Fouled 15.5% 16.9%
Turnover 11.8% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN MIA
Shot Blocked 3.6% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 23.1% 22.0%