NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN DAL
Points 115.2 112.9
Total Points   228.1
Points From 2-Pointers 63.8 58.1
Points From 3-Pointers 35.5 36.8
Points From Free Throws 15.9 17.9
Shooting DEN DAL
Field Goals Made 43.7 41.3
Field Goals Attempted 90.2 88.5
Field Goal % 48.5% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 31.9 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 58.8 53.8
2 Point Shooting % 54.2% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 11.8 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 31.4 34.7
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 15.9 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 23.7
Free Throw % 76.4% 75.6%
Ball Control DEN DAL
Rebounds 51.3 47.7
Rebounds - Defensive 38.9 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 11.2
Turnovers 11.3 10.3
Blocked Shots 4.4 4.6
Steals 6.2 5.7
Fouls 17.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Dallas

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN DAL
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 102.3 102.2
% of Possessions with DEN DAL
2 Point Attempt 50.9% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 30.4%
Player Fouled 15.8% 17.7%
Turnover 11.2% 10.1%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN DAL
Shot Blocked 5.3% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 22.3%