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Denver at Indiana
Thu Mar 4, 2021
8:00pm ET
Indianapolis, IN
Denver at Indiana: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Denver by 3.5, Total Points: 227
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | DEN | adv | IND |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 39-43-2 | 45-37-3 | |
| vs Division | 6-10-0 | 12-7-0 | |
| vs Conference | 23-30-1 | 31-22-1 | |
| Streak | L1 | W1 | |
| Last 5 | 3-2-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 6-4-0 | 6-4-0 | |
| Home | 22-20-1 | 22-17-2 | |
| Away | 17-23-1 | 23-20-1 |
Denver Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/24 | Home | LA Lakers | -5.0 | W by 12 | +7.0 |
| 10/27 | Away | Memphis | -6.0 | W by 4 | -2.0 |
| 10/29 | Away | Okla City | -3.5 | W by 33 | +29.5 |
| 10/30 | Home | Utah | -9.0 | W by 8 | -1.0 |
| 11/01 | Away | Minnesota | -2.0 | L by 21 | -23.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | Dallas | -6.0 | W by 11 | +5.0 |
| 11/04 | Home | Chicago | -9.0 | W by 22 | +13.0 |
| 11/06 | Home | New Orleans | -6.5 | W by 18 | +11.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | Golden State | -4.5 | W by 3 | -1.5 |
| 11/12 | Away | Houston | -5.0 | L by 3 | -8.0 |
| 11/14 | Home | LA Clippers | -4.5 | W by 3 | -1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | New Orleans | -4.5 | L by 5 | -9.5 |
| 11/19 | Away | Cleveland | -4.5 | L by 12 | -16.5 |
| 11/20 | Away | Detroit | -9.5 | W by 4 | -5.5 |
| 11/22 | Away | Orlando | -3.0 | L by 5 | -8.0 |
| 11/24 | Away | Houston | -3.0 | L by 19 | -22.0 |
| 11/26 | Home | San Antonio | -10.5 | W by 12 | +1.5 |
| 11/27 | Away | LA Clippers | +11.0 | W by 9 | +20.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Houston | -10.0 | W by 10 | 0.0 |
| 12/01 | Away | Phoenix | -1.0 | W by 8 | +7.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Sacramento | +3.5 | L by 6 | -2.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | LA Clippers | +1.0 | L by 9 | -8.0 |
| 12/08 | Home | Houston | -9.0 | L by 8 | -17.0 |
| 12/11 | Away | Atlanta | -3.5 | W by 7 | +3.5 |
| 12/12 | Away | Chicago | -6.5 | W by 8 | +1.5 |
| 12/14 | Home | Brooklyn | -9.0 | W by 23 | +14.0 |
| 12/16 | Home | Okla City | -5.0 | L by 1 | -6.0 |
| 12/18 | Home | Dallas | -8.0 | W by 26 | +18.0 |
| 12/20 | Away | Toronto | -3.5 | W by 9 | +5.5 |
| 12/22 | Away | Brooklyn | -4.5 | W by 5 | +0.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | Charlotte | -11.0 | W by 7 | -4.0 |
| 12/25 | Home | Golden State | -7.5 | W by 6 | -1.5 |
| 12/28 | Home | Memphis | -9.0 | W by 37 | +28.0 |
| 12/29 | Home | Okla City | -2.0 | L by 26 | -28.0 |
| 01/01 | Home | Charlotte | -17.0 | W by 18 | +1.0 |
| 01/04 | Away | Golden State | -4.0 | W by 3 | -1.0 |
| 01/05 | Home | Orlando | -10.0 | L by 2 | -12.0 |
| 01/07 | Home | Detroit | -16.0 | W by 17 | +1.0 |
| 01/10 | Away | Utah | -7.0 | L by 13 | -20.0 |
| 01/12 | Home | New Orleans | -5.5 | W by 12 | +6.5 |
| 01/14 | Home | Indiana | -10.5 | W by 8 | -2.5 |
| 01/16 | Away | Philadelphia | +2.0 | L by 5 | -3.0 |
| 01/19 | Away | Boston | +7.0 | W by 2 | +9.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Washington | -12.5 | W by 9 | -3.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | Indiana | -5.0 | W by 5 | 0.0 |
| 01/25 | Away | New York | -2.5 | L by 38 | -40.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Philadelphia | -8.0 | W by 6 | -2.0 |
| 01/29 | Home | Milwaukee | -4.0 | W by 6 | +2.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Okla City | +6.0 | L by 5 | +1.0 |
| 02/02 | Home | Portland | -14.5 | W by 12 | -2.5 |
| 02/04 | Home | Portland | -15.0 | W by 9 | -6.0 |
| 02/08 | Away | LA Lakers | -3.0 | W by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/09 | Away | Sacramento | +3.0 | L by 29 | -26.0 |
| 02/12 | Away | Milwaukee | +1.0 | L by 17 | -16.0 |
| 02/14 | Home | Sacramento | -5.5 | L by 4 | -9.5 |
| 02/22 | Home | Washington | -15.5 | W by 20 | +4.5 |
| 02/23 | Away | Portland | -8.0 | W by 15 | +7.0 |
| 02/25 | Away | Golden State | +2.0 | W by 16 | +18.0 |
| 02/28 | Home | Sacramento | -9.0 | W by 21 | +12.0 |
| 02/29 | Home | Miami | -6.5 | W by 6 | -0.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | LA Lakers | -1.0 | W by 10 | +9.0 |
| 03/05 | Home | Phoenix | -8.5 | L by 10 | -18.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Boston | +2.0 | W by 6 | +8.0 |
| 03/09 | Home | Utah | -12.5 | W by 21 | +8.5 |
| 03/11 | Home | Toronto | -17.0 | W by 6 | -11.0 |
| 03/13 | Away | Miami | -3.5 | W by 12 | +8.5 |
| 03/15 | Away | San Antonio | -10.5 | W by 11 | +0.5 |
| 03/17 | Away | Dallas | -1.0 | L by 2 | -3.0 |
| 03/19 | Away | Minnesota | -7.5 | W by 3 | -4.5 |
| 03/21 | Home | New York | -8.5 | W by 13 | +4.5 |
| 03/23 | Away | Portland | -10.5 | W by 3 | -7.5 |
| 03/25 | Home | Memphis | -12.5 | W by 25 | +12.5 |
| 03/27 | Home | Phoenix | -5.5 | L by 7 | -12.5 |
| 03/29 | Home | Minnesota | -3.0 | L by 13 | -16.0 |
| 03/31 | Home | Cleveland | -4.5 | W by 29 | +24.5 |
| 04/02 | Home | San Antonio | -15.5 | W by 5 | -10.5 |
| 04/04 | Away | LA Clippers | -3.5 | L by 2 | -5.5 |
| 04/06 | Home | Atlanta | -10.5 | W by 32 | +21.5 |
| 04/09 | Away | Utah | -15.5 | W by 16 | +0.5 |
| 04/10 | Home | Minnesota | -7.5 | W by 9 | +1.5 |
| 04/12 | Away | San Antonio | -11.5 | L by 1 | -12.5 |
| 04/14 | Away | Memphis | -13.5 | W by 15 | +1.5 |
| 04/20 | Home | LA Lakers | -6.5 | W by 11 | +4.5 |
| 04/22 | Home | LA Lakers | -7.0 | W by 2 | -5.0 |
Indiana Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/25 | Home | Washington | -4.5 | W by 23 | +18.5 |
| 10/28 | Away | Cleveland | -4.0 | W by 12 | +8.0 |
| 10/30 | Home | Chicago | -3.0 | L by 7 | -10.0 |
| 11/01 | Away | Boston | +13.0 | L by 51 | -38.0 |
| 11/03 | Home | Cleveland | +2.5 | W by 5 | +7.5 |
| 11/04 | Home | Charlotte | -5.0 | L by 1 | -6.0 |
| 11/06 | Home | San Antonio | -8.5 | W by 41 | +32.5 |
| 11/08 | Home | Utah | -6.0 | W by 16 | +10.0 |
| 11/09 | Home | Milwaukee | +1.0 | W by 2 | +3.0 |
| 11/12 | Away | Philadelphia | +7.0 | L by 11 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | Away | Philadelphia | +6.5 | W by 6 | +12.5 |
| 11/19 | Home | Orlando | -4.5 | L by 12 | -16.5 |
| 11/21 | Away | Atlanta | +3.5 | W by 5 | +8.5 |
| 11/22 | Home | Toronto | -2.5 | L by 1 | -3.5 |
| 11/24 | Home | Detroit | -9.5 | W by 23 | +13.5 |
| 11/27 | Home | Portland | -12.0 | L by 4 | -16.0 |
| 11/30 | Away | Miami | +4.0 | L by 10 | -6.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Miami | +4.5 | W by 15 | +19.5 |
| 12/04 | Home | Boston | +4.5 | W by 10 | +14.5 |
| 12/07 | Neutral | Milwaukee | +5.0 | W by 9 | +14.0 |
| 12/09 | Neutral | LA Lakers | +4.0 | L by 14 | -10.0 |
| 12/11 | Away | Detroit | -7.0 | W by 8 | +1.0 |
| 12/13 | Away | Milwaukee | +6.5 | L by 14 | -7.5 |
| 12/15 | Away | Washington | -8.0 | L by 14 | -22.0 |
| 12/16 | Away | Minnesota | +10.5 | L by 18 | -7.5 |
| 12/18 | Home | LA Clippers | +4.0 | L by 24 | -20.0 |
| 12/20 | Home | Charlotte | -10.5 | W by 31 | +20.5 |
| 12/21 | Away | Memphis | +2.0 | L by 13 | -11.0 |
| 12/23 | Home | Orlando | -2.5 | L by 7 | -9.5 |
| 12/26 | Away | Houston | +3.0 | W by 6 | +9.0 |
| 12/28 | Away | Chicago | -1.0 | W by 16 | +15.0 |
| 12/30 | Home | New York | -4.0 | W by 14 | +10.0 |
| 01/01 | Away | Milwaukee | +8.0 | W by 9 | +17.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Milwaukee | +3.5 | W by 12 | +15.5 |
| 01/05 | Home | Atlanta | -3.0 | W by 34 | +31.0 |
| 01/06 | Home | Boston | +7.0 | L by 17 | -10.0 |
| 01/08 | Home | Boston | +3.5 | W by 2 | +5.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | Washington | -8.0 | W by 8 | 0.0 |
| 01/12 | Away | Atlanta | +6.0 | W by 18 | +24.0 |
| 01/14 | Away | Denver | +10.5 | L by 8 | +2.5 |
| 01/15 | Away | Utah | +7.0 | L by 27 | -20.0 |
| 01/18 | Away | Sacramento | +8.5 | W by 5 | +13.5 |
| 01/19 | Away | Portland | -8.0 | L by 3 | -11.0 |
| 01/21 | Away | Phoenix | +7.0 | L by 7 | 0.0 |
| 01/23 | Home | Denver | +5.0 | L by 5 | 0.0 |
| 01/25 | Home | Philadelphia | +4.5 | W by 12 | +16.5 |
| 01/26 | Home | Phoenix | +5.0 | W by 2 | +7.0 |
| 01/28 | Home | Memphis | -7.5 | W by 6 | -1.5 |
| 01/30 | Away | Boston | +8.0 | L by 5 | +3.0 |
| 02/01 | Away | New York | +2.0 | L by 4 | -2.0 |
| 02/02 | Home | Sacramento | +4.0 | L by 11 | -7.0 |
| 02/04 | Away | Charlotte | -11.5 | W by 16 | +4.5 |
| 02/06 | Home | Houston | -8.0 | W by 3 | -5.0 |
| 02/08 | Home | Golden State | -5.5 | L by 22 | -27.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | New York | -3.0 | W by 14 | +11.0 |
| 02/12 | Away | Charlotte | -10.0 | L by 9 | -19.0 |
| 02/14 | Away | Toronto | -2.5 | W by 2 | -0.5 |
| 02/22 | Home | Detroit | -12.0 | W by 14 | +2.0 |
| 02/25 | Home | Dallas | +2.0 | W by 22 | +24.0 |
| 02/26 | Home | Toronto | -5.5 | L by 8 | -13.5 |
| 02/28 | Home | New Orleans | -4.0 | W by 9 | +5.0 |
| 03/01 | Away | New Orleans | +5.5 | L by 27 | -21.5 |
| 03/03 | Away | San Antonio | -6.5 | L by 12 | -18.5 |
| 03/05 | Away | Dallas | +5.5 | W by 17 | +22.5 |
| 03/07 | Home | Minnesota | -1.0 | L by 2 | -3.0 |
| 03/10 | Away | Orlando | (Pick) | W by 14 | +14.0 |
| 03/12 | Away | Okla City | +5.5 | W by 10 | +15.5 |
| 03/13 | Home | Chicago | -5.0 | L by 3 | -8.0 |
| 03/16 | Home | Brooklyn | -8.0 | W by 21 | +13.0 |
| 03/18 | Home | Cleveland | -7.0 | L by 5 | -12.0 |
| 03/20 | Away | Detroit | -11.0 | W by 19 | +8.0 |
| 03/22 | Away | Golden State | +4.5 | W by 12 | +16.5 |
| 03/24 | Away | LA Lakers | +2.5 | L by 5 | -2.5 |
| 03/25 | Away | LA Clippers | +6.0 | W by 17 | +23.0 |
| 03/27 | Away | Chicago | -3.5 | L by 26 | -29.5 |
| 03/29 | Home | LA Lakers | -3.5 | W by 19 | +15.5 |
| 04/01 | Home | Brooklyn | -12.5 | W by 22 | +9.5 |
| 04/03 | Away | Brooklyn | -7.0 | L by 4 | -11.0 |
| 04/05 | Home | Okla City | -6.5 | W by 14 | +7.5 |
| 04/07 | Home | Miami | -3.0 | W by 2 | -1.0 |
| 04/09 | Away | Toronto | -14.0 | W by 17 | +3.0 |
| 04/12 | Away | Cleveland | +3.0 | L by 9 | -6.0 |
| 04/14 | Home | Atlanta | -13.5 | W by 42 | +28.5 |
| 04/21 | Away | Milwaukee | -1.5 | L by 15 | -16.5 |
| 04/23 | Away | Milwaukee | +1.0 | W by 17 | +18.0 |
| DEN -3.5 | Open | -2.5 | High | -5.0 |
| Last | -4.0 | Low | -2.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2015-2016 NBA season there have been 781 games where the closing line favored the away team by 2.5 to 4.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Denver won the game 448 times (57.4%).
- The team like Indiana won the game 333 times (42.6%).
- The team like Indiana did better against the spread, going 389-382-10 (50.5% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.7 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2017-2018 NBA season there have been 72 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by the same as the opening line.
In these games, the team like Denver did better against the spread, going 41-30-1 (57.7% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 1.4 points.
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -3.5 | -4.0 | -3.5 |
| Open | -4.5 | -4.5 | -5.0 |
| History | |||
| 03/04 08:05 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 07:53 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 07:45 PM | -- | -- | -3.5 |
| 03/04 07:41 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 07:38 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 07:26 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 07:11 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 06:59 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 06:47 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 06:45 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 03/04 06:35 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 06:35 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 03/04 06:29 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 06:05 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 05:54 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 03/04 05:52 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 05:45 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 03/04 05:44 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 05:38 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 05:29 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 05:17 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 04:53 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 04:29 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 04:17 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 04:08 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 03:56 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 03:47 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 03:29 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 03:14 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 03:08 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 02:56 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 02:47 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 02:45 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 03/04 02:44 PM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 03/04 02:35 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 03/04 02:35 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 02:20 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 02:05 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 01:59 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 01:47 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 01:45 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 03/04 01:44 PM | -- | -5.0 | -- |
| 03/04 01:38 PM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 01:02 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 12:59 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 12:38 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 12:14 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 03/04 12:14 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 12:04 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 03/04 11:55 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 03/04 11:53 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 11:47 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 11:32 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 11:04 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 03/04 10:55 AM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 03/04 10:54 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 03/04 10:50 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 10:40 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 10:35 AM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 03/04 10:35 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 10:14 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 03/04 09:55 AM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 03/04 09:54 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
| 03/04 09:47 AM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 03/04 09:24 AM | -- | -4.5 | -- |
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