NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN IND
Points 120.1 117.6
Total Points   237.7
Points From 2-Pointers 72.9 67.5
Points From 3-Pointers 28.2 32.7
Points From Free Throws 19.0 17.4
Shooting DEN IND
Field Goals Made 45.8 44.7
Field Goals Attempted 89.4 91.6
Field Goal % 51.3% 48.8%
2 Pointers Made 36.4 33.8
2 Pointers Attempted 63.7 60.9
2 Point Shooting % 57.2% 55.5%
3 Pointers Made 9.4 10.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 30.7
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 19.0 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 24.9 22.3
Free Throw % 76.4% 78.0%
Ball Control DEN IND
Rebounds 50.1 45.4
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 33.7
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 11.7
Turnovers 11.5 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.6 5.4
Steals 5.5 6.3
Fouls 16.4 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN IND
Total Possessions 102.5
Effective Scoring Chances 103.7 104.0
% of Possessions with DEN IND
2 Point Attempt 54.3% 52.3%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 26.4%
Player Fouled 18.1% 16.0%
Turnover 11.3% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN IND
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 23.9%