NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN NO
Points 113.2 110.4
Total Points   223.6
Points From 2-Pointers 61.2 59.7
Points From 3-Pointers 37.0 32.0
Points From Free Throws 15.0 18.7
Shooting DEN NO
Field Goals Made 42.9 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.9 87.0
Field Goal % 49.4% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 30.6 29.8
2 Pointers Attempted 52.8 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 51.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 29.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.2% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 15.0 18.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 24.2
Free Throw % 76.4% 77.4%
Ball Control DEN NO
Rebounds 48.2 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 37.1 35.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.1 11.9
Turnovers 11.9 10.5
Blocked Shots 5.5 4.1
Steals 5.6 6.9
Fouls 16.1 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN NO
Total Possessions 99.3
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 100.7
% of Possessions with DEN NO
2 Point Attempt 47.2% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 25.9%
Player Fouled 16.1% 16.2%
Turnover 12.0% 10.6%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN NO
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 24.3%