NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN TOR
Points 123.1 108.1
Total Points   231.3
Points From 2-Pointers 71.4 60.8
Points From 3-Pointers 37.0 29.9
Points From Free Throws 14.7 17.4
Shooting DEN TOR
Field Goals Made 48.0 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 91.3 89.6
Field Goal % 52.6% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 35.7 30.4
2 Pointers Attempted 58.7 59.6
2 Point Shooting % 60.8% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.3 10.0
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 30.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.9% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 14.7 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 22.8
Free Throw % 76.8% 76.6%
Ball Control DEN TOR
Rebounds 52.1 44.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.1 32.5
Rebounds - Offensive 13.0 12.3
Turnovers 11.5 11.4
Blocked Shots 6.7 4.1
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 15.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN TOR
Total Possessions 101.3
Effective Scoring Chances 102.7 102.1
% of Possessions with DEN TOR
2 Point Attempt 50.6% 51.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 25.8%
Player Fouled 16.0% 15.7%
Turnover 11.4% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN TOR
Shot Blocked 4.7% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 28.5% 23.9%