NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN HOU
Points 117.0 110.6
Total Points   227.5
Points From 2-Pointers 65.3 57.8
Points From 3-Pointers 33.4 33.3
Points From Free Throws 18.3 19.5
Shooting DEN HOU
Field Goals Made 43.8 40.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.0 90.9
Field Goal % 49.7% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 32.6 28.9
2 Pointers Attempted 56.7 58.0
2 Point Shooting % 57.6% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.3 32.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.5% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 18.3 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 25.4
Free Throw % 76.4% 76.8%
Ball Control DEN HOU
Rebounds 51.9 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 39.7 34.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 13.9
Turnovers 11.5 10.1
Blocked Shots 6.1 4.3
Steals 6.1 6.5
Fouls 17.2 17.9

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN HOU
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 102.1 105.2
% of Possessions with DEN HOU
2 Point Attempt 49.2% 49.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 17.7% 17.0%
Turnover 11.3% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN HOU
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 25.9% 25.9%