NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DEN SA
Points 116.7 108.7
Total Points   225.4
Points From 2-Pointers 69.1 59.4
Points From 3-Pointers 33.2 32.9
Points From Free Throws 14.4 16.4
Shooting DEN SA
Field Goals Made 45.6 40.7
Field Goals Attempted 92.5 90.0
Field Goal % 49.3% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 34.6 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 62.8 57.6
2 Point Shooting % 55.0% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.1 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 29.6 32.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.3% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 14.4 16.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 21.1
Free Throw % 76.4% 77.6%
Ball Control DEN SA
Rebounds 51.1 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 39.2 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.2
Turnovers 11.1 12.1
Blocked Shots 5.2 5.7
Steals 7.5 5.9
Fouls 15.6 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: San Antonio

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DEN SA
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 102.9 102.2
% of Possessions with DEN SA
2 Point Attempt 54.0% 49.5%
3 Point Attempt 25.5% 27.8%
Player Fouled 14.4% 15.3%
Turnover 10.9% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken DEN SA
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 23.8%