NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND ATL
Points 130.3 120.9
Total Points   251.2
Points From 2-Pointers 72.3 65.7
Points From 3-Pointers 41.3 33.1
Points From Free Throws 16.8 22.1
Shooting IND ATL
Field Goals Made 49.9 43.9
Field Goals Attempted 91.9 91.3
Field Goal % 54.3% 48.1%
2 Pointers Made 36.1 32.9
2 Pointers Attempted 56.9 60.7
2 Point Shooting % 63.5% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.8 11.0
3 Pointers Attempted 35.0 30.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 16.8 22.1
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 28.2
Free Throw % 77.6% 78.3%
Ball Control IND ATL
Rebounds 46.7 48.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.1 33.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 14.2
Turnovers 11.8 12.2
Blocked Shots 6.4 4.4
Steals 6.8 5.8
Fouls 19.6 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Atlanta

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND ATL
Total Possessions 105.5
Effective Scoring Chances 104.4 107.5
% of Possessions with IND ATL
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 25.0%
Player Fouled 16.2% 18.6%
Turnover 11.1% 11.6%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND ATL
Shot Blocked 4.9% 7.1%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 28.3%