NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MIA
Points 116.9 113.6
Total Points   230.5
Points From 2-Pointers 64.0 61.0
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 31.0
Points From Free Throws 14.7 21.6
Shooting IND MIA
Field Goals Made 44.7 40.8
Field Goals Attempted 88.6 85.8
Field Goal % 50.5% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 32.0 30.5
2 Pointers Attempted 52.6 57.4
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 36.0 28.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 14.7 21.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 26.4
Free Throw % 77.6% 81.9%
Ball Control IND MIA
Rebounds 46.1 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.4 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.8
Turnovers 11.7 11.7
Blocked Shots 5.5 3.3
Steals 6.0 6.1
Fouls 19.4 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MIA
Total Possessions 101.8
Effective Scoring Chances 99.8 100.9
% of Possessions with IND MIA
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 50.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 24.7%
Player Fouled 15.5% 19.1%
Turnover 11.5% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MIA
Shot Blocked 3.9% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 22.9%