NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND TOR
Points 129.5 116.3
Total Points   245.8
Points From 2-Pointers 74.0 68.3
Points From 3-Pointers 40.0 27.8
Points From Free Throws 15.5 20.3
Shooting IND TOR
Field Goals Made 50.3 43.4
Field Goals Attempted 93.5 89.9
Field Goal % 53.8% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 37.0 34.1
2 Pointers Attempted 58.1 62.5
2 Point Shooting % 63.6% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 35.4 27.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 15.5 20.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 26.4
Free Throw % 77.6% 76.6%
Ball Control IND TOR
Rebounds 48.6 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 33.4
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 12.5
Turnovers 11.8 12.9
Blocked Shots 7.1 4.5
Steals 6.6 6.2
Fouls 18.6 16.7

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND TOR
Total Possessions 105.0
Effective Scoring Chances 105.1 104.6
% of Possessions with IND TOR
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 52.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 22.7%
Player Fouled 15.9% 17.7%
Turnover 11.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND TOR
Shot Blocked 5.1% 7.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 25.4%